Weather & Public Safety | July 2026 | 4 min read
⚡ Quick Takeaways
⚡ The Chenab River is in high flood at Qadirabad and Chiniot Bridge; medium flood at Marala and Khanki.
⚡ FFD warns river flows may rise significantly across all major river catchments by July 25.
⚡ Flash flooding forecast in DG Khan hill torrents, KP streams and northern Balochistan.
⚡ Urban flooding risk flagged for Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Narowal and more.
⚡ Tarbela live storage at 3.891 MAF; Mangla at 3.297 MAF — reservoirs filling during peak monsoon.
The Chenab River remained in high flood on Thursday evening as torrential rains continued over held Kashmir and Punjab, and Pakistan’s Flood Forecasting Division issued a warning that flows across all major rivers are likely to rise significantly by July 25 due to an incoming westerly system combined with strong monsoon currents. Urban flooding alerts cover over a dozen Punjab cities.
| HIGH
Chenab Status Qadirabad & Chiniot Bridge |
By Jul 25
Flow Rise Warning All major river catchments |
3.891 MAF
Tarbela Storage 1,519 ft water level |
Chenab River — Current Status and What to Watch
The Chenab’s situation is evolving hour by hour. At Marala and Khanki — the river’s upper gauging stations — water levels have subsided to medium flood as of Thursday evening. At Qadirabad and Chiniot Bridge, the river remains in high flood. Irrigation officials expect the surge to subside by the time it reaches Trimmu Headworks downstream.
The critical unknown is what is happening in held Kashmir, where rains continued on Thursday. The irrigation department is still awaiting Thursday’s report from across the Line of Control and warns that if those rains have been heavy, Marala’s levels could rise again — potentially reversing the subsidence upstream and sending a fresh surge downstream.
| 🔴 Watch Window: July 25 — Flows Expected to Rise A fresh rise at Marala would mean high flood conditions returning to areas that have just seen them subside. The lag between upstream rain and downstream river response is typically 12 to 24 hours on the Chenab — which is why FFD is flagging the July 25 window as the next critical point. |
| River / Gauging Station | Flood Level | Status |
| Chenab — Qadirabad | HIGH FLOOD | Active |
| Chenab — Chiniot Bridge | HIGH FLOOD | Active |
| Chenab — Khanki | MEDIUM FLOOD | Subsiding |
| Chenab — Marala | MEDIUM FLOOD | May rise if Kashmir rains continue |
| Indus — Tarbela | LOW FLOOD | Active |
| Indus — Chashma | LOW FLOOD | Active |
| Kabul — Nowshera | LOW FLOOD | Active |
| Ravi — Balloki | LOW FLOOD | Active |
| All other stations | Normal | — |
FFD’s July 25 Warning — All Major Rivers at Risk
The Flood Forecasting Division has issued a broader warning that extends beyond the Chenab. A westerly weather system is approaching, coupling with strong monsoon currents deflected from the Bay of Bengal to produce what the FFD describes as “scattered to widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls” over the catchments of all major rivers.
“River flows are likely to increase significantly up to July 25,” the FFD stated in its daily report. The warning covers the Indus, Kabul, Chenab, Ravi and all major river systems — not just the Chenab that is currently in flood.
| ⚠️ Flash Flood Risk: DG Khan Hill Torrents The FFD also warns of flash flooding in the hill torrents of DG Khan — a zone that funnels sudden heavy rainfall off the Sulaiman Range into low-lying plains with little warning time. Flash floods in these torrents can be fast-moving and destructive. Residents in DG Khan’s low-lying areas and near seasonal water channels should be on high alert. |
Urban Flooding — Punjab Cities on Alert
For the next 24 hours, the FFD has specifically flagged urban flooding risk in Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Mandi Bahauddin, Sialkot, Narowal, Sargodha, Faisalabad, Okara, and Sahiwal. These cities face the compounding risk of direct heavy rainfall on urban drainage systems already taxed by several days of monsoon activity.
Beyond Punjab, the FFD forecast extends to KP — covering over 25 districts from Peshawar and Nowshera to Mansehra, Swat, Dir and the tribal districts — as well as Sindh’s Badin, Mirpurkhas, Tharparkar and Umerkot, and Balochistan’s Zhob, Sherani and Loralai divisions.
Reservoir Levels — Storage Building
| Reservoir | Water Level (ft) | Live Storage (MAF) |
| Tarbela Dam | 1,519.11 ft | 3.891 MAF |
| Mangla Dam | 1,183.90 ft | 3.297 MAF |
| Chashma Lake | 645.50 ft | 0.157 MAF |
Tarbela and Mangla are accumulating significant live storage during the peak monsoon period — 3.891 MAF and 3.297 MAF respectively. This is normal and desirable for water security, but it also means the dams are approaching higher operating levels where releases increase, which can add to downstream river flows even without additional rainfall. WAPDA manages this carefully, but the combination of inflows and monsoon rain creates the conditions for sustained high flows in major rivers through the monsoon season.
Disclaimer: River and reservoir data is sourced from the Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) and WAPDA’s daily reports for Thursday, July 24, 2026. Flood situations are dynamic and evolve rapidly; residents in at-risk areas should monitor FFD and NDMA live updates.
