What the monitoring committee decided and why it matters now
Pakistan’s fuel supply plan is under pressure because global oil markets are moving fast and shipping routes are facing disruption. That is why the Committee to Monitor Petrol Prices held a detailed review at the Finance Division, focusing on national stock positions, import schedules, refinery supply patterns and maritime logistics. Officials told the committee that March requirements are fully secured and, based on current cargo planning, the country has coverage up to mid‑April. They also said work is underway to extend cover towards the end of April.
The meeting included the finance minister, petroleum and maritime affairs ministers, the State Bank governor, and senior officials from relevant ministries, divisions and regulators. The central aim was to ensure there is no supply gap that could trigger long queues during Eid travel. In plain terms, the government wants the public to know that fuel is available, and that any sudden shortage is more likely to come from market behaviour—panic buying or hoarding—than from an actual collapse in supply.
This kind of committee review is also about confidence. When international headlines talk about conflict, tanker risks, and rising crude prices, people start to assume pumps will run dry. But the supply chain is a system: refinery output, depot stocks, inland transport, and retail sales all have to move smoothly. Even a short disruption at one point can look like a national shortage on social media. The committee’s job is to check the whole chain and keep information flowing and reduce panic.
The price backdrop: why petrol jumped, and why hikes were paused
The supply review comes after a sharp domestic price shock. Earlier this month, petrol and high‑speed diesel prices were raised by around Rs55 per litre (about 20%) as international prices surged. Officials linked the jump to the ongoing US‑Israel and Iran conflict, which has disrupted supply chains and pushed crude oil prices to very high levels. When conflict risk increases, global buyers often pay more for the same barrel because they are pricing in possible delays, higher insurance, and the chance of sudden route closures.
There was also a policy choice inside the increase. The petrol hike was described as higher than the rise in the international market because the government collected additional revenue from petrol users—mainly motorcyclists and car owners—to subsidise diesel. Diesel is heavily used by public transport and agriculture, so keeping diesel relatively lower can reduce pressure on fares, freight costs and food prices. However, it shifts pain towards households that rely on petrol for daily mobility and small businesses that operate petrol vehicles.
On Friday, the prime minister decided not to raise petroleum prices this time despite a further rise in international oil prices. The decision was positioned as public relief and as a signal that the government does not want another sudden inflation wave before Eid. Still, if global prices stay elevated for weeks, the cost pressure does not disappear—it can show up through a higher import bill, pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and inflation risk. If the rupee weakens at the same time, imported fuel becomes even more expensive in local terms.
That is why the price debate is not only about one fortnightly announcement. It is also about how Pakistan manages shocks: whether it can spread the impact across time, whether it can protect the most vulnerable users without overburdening others, and whether it can avoid sudden policy swings that confuse businesses. Stable pricing rules help transporters, farmers and industries plan their costs with fewer surprises.
Reserve cover and route risk: what the Senate panel was told
Lawmakers were separately briefed on the country’s reserve cover. The Senate Standing Committee on Petroleum was told that Pakistan has diesel reserves sufficient for about 21 days and petrol stocks for about 27 days. Officials also cited LPG reserves for around nine days and JP‑1 aviation fuel stocks for about 14 days. Crude oil reserves were reported at roughly 11 days. These are not perfect guarantees, but they are an important cushion if a few shipments arrive late.
These numbers matter because officials said around 70% of Pakistan’s petroleum supply comes from the Middle East, and current tensions have affected vessel movement. Under normal conditions, cargoes from Arab suppliers can reach Pakistan within four to five days via the Strait of Hormuz. Officials noted that alternative routing can take much longer, shrinking the buffer if deliveries slow down. Longer routes also mean higher costs, because ships burn more fuel and pay more in insurance and security.
The Senate panel was also briefed on how quickly international prices moved during the crisis. Officials described steep jumps in product prices and crude benchmarks over a short window. For Pakistan, this matters because imported fuel is priced in dollars. Even if local consumption stays the same, a higher dollar price immediately increases the import bill. That can add pressure on inflation, because fuel is a basic input for transport, power generation, and supply chains.
On the gas side, the picture is tighter. Officials warned that LNG cargo flows have been disrupted and that delays could continue into April. They flagged a risk of gas shortages after April 14 if supplies do not resume. This is why the government discussed an emergency balancing plan for March, aimed at protecting domestic users while adjusting allocations for some commercial and industrial sectors.
The plan discussed in committees reflects a common crisis approach: prioritise households first, then keep essential industries running, and reduce less critical demand where possible. But every cut has an economic cost. If gas to industry falls, output can slow. If captive power supply is reduced, some factories may rely more on the grid or alternative fuels, which can raise costs elsewhere.
What happens next: enforcement, diversification, and practical advice
The monitoring committee emphasised diversifying supply sources to reduce reliance on any single corridor or region. Officials said procurement strategies are already moving towards broader international sourcing, which can improve resilience when one route becomes risky or expensive. Options being explored include buying from different international suppliers and adjusting shipping routes where feasible.
At the same time, authorities were directed to coordinate with OGRA and provincial governments to monitor stock levels and market activity closely. The message was direct: there is no basis for panic buying based on current inventory and cargo planning, and any hoarding or attempts to create artificial shortages will be handled under the law. Monitoring includes watching unusual sales patterns at depots and retail outlets and checking whether dealers are holding back supply to push prices up.
For consumers, the sensible approach is routine, not rush. Keep normal fuel levels, plan Eid travel with a small time buffer, and avoid topping up because of rumours. Panic buying can turn a stable supply chain into local shortages at pumps. If you travel long distances, check tyre condition, keep a phone charger, and avoid last-minute refuelling at peak hours.
For transport operators and businesses, the better approach is risk management. Keep an operational buffer, confirm delivery schedules with suppliers, and avoid tying up cash in unnecessary stockpiles. If you operate in agriculture, plan diesel usage for harvest or irrigation windows, and stay updated on local supply conditions. For industries, review fuel switching options and energy efficiency steps that can reduce exposure when prices rise.
The bigger story is that Pakistan’s energy security is being tested by global shocks. The strongest response is diversification, disciplined monitoring, clear communication to the public, and investment in storage and logistics over time. Calm depends on supply arriving on schedule. Long-term stability depends on building flexibility so one crisis does not shake the whole market.
