What Pakistan says it has secured through April 25
Pakistan says it has secured petroleum supplies for the next 30 days, with coverage through April 25. Officials describe inventories as stable, supported by better stock management and procurement decisions taken in time to avoid gaps in supply.
This matters because fuel availability in Pakistan has an immediate impact on transport costs, inflation, and business activity. When rumours of shortages spread, panic buying can begin, which makes the system look weaker than it actually is. A clear supply plan, confirmed cargoes, and steady refinery operations help reduce that risk.
In the near term, the goal is simple: keep retail stations supplied, keep industry running, and avoid sudden disruptions that can trigger price spikes or distribution chaos.
How refineries are helping maintain availability
Refinery utilisation is a major part of the current plan. Authorities say refineries are operating in the 80% to 100% range, which is stronger than earlier periods when crude constraints kept operations closer to 50%–60%. Higher utilisation increases local output and reduces the need for emergency imports of finished products.
Pak-Arab Refinery Company (PARCO) is reported to be operating at full capacity and holds crude stocks for roughly two weeks, with incoming shipments expected to extend supply coverage through April 25. National Refinery Limited and Pakistan Refinery Limited are said to be running at around 80% capacity, reflecting improved crude availability.
For consumers, the takeaway is straightforward: when local refineries run consistently, the system has more flexibility if international deliveries face short delays. It also reduces pressure on foreign exchange because more demand is met through local refining rather than costly last-minute imports.
Diversified imports: Oman cargoes and alternative supply hubs
Diversified imports are the second pillar of the strategy. Officials say Pakistan increased petrol and diesel imports from Oman, including three gasoline cargoes and one diesel shipment received in March. Two additional gasoline cargoes are expected before month-end.
Pakistan State Oil is also reported to be in talks with Oman Trading International for more cargoes as demand rises. Alongside Oman, Pakistan arranged alternative crude shipments from regional hubs such as Fujairah (UAE) and Yanbu (Saudi Arabia), which can provide routing flexibility if certain routes become risky or congested.
This approach reduces dependence on a single source. If one supplier or route is disrupted, multiple channels can keep inventories from falling sharply. It also allows procurement teams to choose the fastest option available, which is critical when markets are volatile.
Why the geopolitical risk focus is back on fuel routes
Officials link the contingency planning to heightened geopolitical tensions, including a Feb. 28 conflict involving the United States and Israel against Iran that raised concerns about global oil flows. In this environment, the Strait of Hormuz is often a key worry because it is a major chokepoint for energy shipments.
Even if physical supply continues, tensions can still raise costs through higher freight and insurance, longer routings, or tighter spot market availability. The update also notes that some regional markets, including India and Bangladesh, are facing tighter supply conditions, which can increase competition for cargoes and push prices higher.
That is why Pakistan is emphasising both stock coverage and alternative sourcing: the goal is uninterrupted availability even if the regional risk environment worsens.
What to watch next: demand, deliveries, and price pressure
The current message is “stable supply through April 25,” but the next stress factor is demand. If consumption climbs during peak travel or hotter weather, stocks can draw down faster, especially if a cargo is delayed or refinery runs dip.
Key checkpoints for the coming weeks include:
• Whether refineries maintain high utilisation without crude interruptions
• Whether the expected gasoline cargoes arrive before month-end
• Whether additional cargo discussions convert into confirmed deliveries
• Whether storage and distribution remain smooth across major cities
Availability is only one side of the story. If international prices rise due to instability, Pakistan may still face higher costs that can feed into domestic fuel prices and transport inflation. In short, the plan may protect supply, but price pressure could remain if the region stays tense.
For households and businesses, the practical takeaway is to expect volatility in pricing even when supply is steady. For policymakers, the test will be maintaining adequate stocks while managing import costs and ensuring that procurement remains timely rather than reactive.
