Energy & Consumer Affairs Desk  |  April 2025  |  4 min read

 

 

⚡ Quick Takeaways

•       Pakistan faces a combined 4,000MW power shortfall from two simultaneous crises: LNG supply disruption and reduced hydropower output. •       LNG imports effectively stopped after April 1 following Qatar’s force majeure declaration, eliminating 2,500MW of gas-based generation. •       Hydropower output dropped from 3,200MW to 1,671MW due to reduced releases from Mangla and Tarbela reservoirs. •       Loadshedding is being applied after demand exceeds 16,500MW, with one hour of cuts per 500MW of shortfall. •       The government is pursuing government-to-government LNG deals rather than spot market purchases to restore supply.

 

 

Pakistan is navigating one of its most acute electricity crises in recent years, with a 4,000-megawatt supply shortfall driving extended loadshedding across the country. Power Minister Awais Leghari publicly apologised for the disruption while laying out the dual forces behind the breakdown: the abrupt halt in LNG imports following a force majeure declaration by Qatar, compounded by a significant decline in hydropower output from key reservoirs. The minister acknowledged the situation as being ‘out of control’ due to external factors, but committed to equitable load distribution across both urban and rural consumers.

 

By the Numbers

4,000 MW Total power shortfall

2,500 MW Lost from LNG plants

1,530 MW Lost from hydropower

 

 

The LNG Supply Collapse: Qatar’s Force Majeure

The more acute of the two crises is the sudden interruption of liquefied natural gas imports. Qatar’s state-run energy company declared force majeure, effectively halting contracted LNG shipments to Pakistan after April 1. This single event stripped the national grid of gas fuel needed to run plants that were generating approximately 3,000MW during the comparable period in 2024. The resulting LNG shortfall has knocked out an estimated 2,500MW of generation capacity at a time when summer demand is climbing toward its seasonal peak.

The minister confirmed that when electricity demand exceeds 16,500MW — after exhausting every available domestic resource including imported coal, local coal, nuclear, hydropower and solar — gas-based generation is the only remaining option. Without it, the system has no buffer against peak demand spikes, making evening loadshedding inevitable.

🔴 Alert — LNG Gap: Qatar’s force majeure declaration has removed approximately 2,500MW of gas-based generation from Pakistan’s grid. The government is negotiating replacement supply through government-to-government contracts rather than costlier spot market purchases.

 

 

Hydropower Shortfall: Reservoir Releases Prioritised for Agriculture

Compounding the LNG crisis is a sharp reduction in hydropower output. Generation from water resources fell from 3,200MW in April of last year to just 1,671MW this year — a drop of over 1,500MW. The minister explained that water releases from Mangla and Tarbela dams are governed by agricultural irrigation schedules rather than power generation requirements, meaning electricity needs are subordinate to farming demand during critical sowing periods.

Source	April 2024 Output	April 2025 Output
Hydropower (Mangla & Tarbela)	3,200 MW	1,671 MW
LNG Gas Plants	3,000 MW	~500 MW

 

 

How Loadshedding Is Being Managed

The minister outlined a structured formula governing when and how loadshedding is applied. There is no load management during daytime off-peak hours. Cuts are triggered in the evening when demand climbs beyond 16,500MW, with each 500MW of unmet demand translating into one additional hour of loadshedding. When domestic consumers face more than three consecutive hours of cuts, the government extends load management to industrial consumers as well, ensuring the burden is distributed rather than concentrated on households.

Leghari also addressed concerns about regional disparities, stating that distribution during recent nights was conducted equitably, without distinction between urban and rural areas. Hyderabad Electric Supply Company and K-Electric zones in the south remain exempt from additional loadshedding, though routine economic loadshedding from system losses continues in those areas.

📊 Analysis — The Installed Capacity Confusion: Pakistan’s 40,000MW of installed generation capacity does not guarantee equivalent supply. Capacity is a theoretical ceiling; actual output depends on available fuel, water levels and contracted dispatch. The current crisis demonstrates that even a large installed base offers no protection when primary fuel sources are interrupted simultaneously.

 

 

Government Response and What Comes Next

The government’s immediate priority is restoring LNG supply through diplomatic and contractual channels. Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik has indicated that spot market purchases are being considered as a fallback, though the preference remains securing government-to-government supply agreements to avoid the premium costs associated with open-market procurement.

⚠️ Consumer Advisory: Loadshedding is confined to evening and peak-demand hours. Consumers in areas served by Hyderabad Electric Supply Company and K-Electric should note that any disruptions they face are attributable to routine system losses rather than the national shortfall. Updates on supply restoration will follow as new LNG arrangements are finalised.

 

 

DISCLAIMER: All information in this article is based on publicly available data and official statements. This content is intended for general informational purposes only.