Development & Policy | July 2026 | 4 min read
Quick Takeaways
- PMD expects rain, strong winds and thunderstorms across several parts of Pakistan over the next 24 hours.
- A stronger monsoon spell is forecast from July 29 across Islamabad, upper Punjab, KP, AJK, GB and river catchments.
- Flood Forecasting Division says the overall river situation remains under control despite elevated Chenab and Ravi flows.
- Lahore has recorded 450 millimeters of rain over the past five days, with more rain expected through July 27.
- Karachi may see light rain and drizzle, while parts of interior Sindh face moderate to heavy rainfall risk.
Pakistan is heading into another active monsoon phase as weather authorities warn that rain, strong winds and thunderstorms may affect several regions before a stronger spell develops from July 29.
| Next Major Spell | Lahore Five-Day Rain | Highest 24-Hour Rain |
| From July 29 | 450 mm | 115 mm in Noorpur Thal |
Fresh Monsoon Spell Expected From July 29
The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast scattered rain, wind and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours and warned that vulnerable urban areas and hill torrents could face localized flooding. The department said no flood-generating rainfall is expected before July 28, but a stronger monsoon spell is likely to move in from July 29.
That spell is expected to affect Islamabad, upper Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and the upper catchments of major rivers. These areas are important because rainfall over catchments can raise downstream river flows even when cities away from the catchment do not receive extreme rain at the same time.
| Advisory Note: The current warning points to stronger conditions from July 29, while flood-generating rainfall is not expected before July 28. |
Chenab and Ravi Flows Under Watch
The Flood Forecasting Division has said the overall river situation remains under control, though higher flows have been reported in the Chenab River at Marala and the Ravi River at Balloki. The Indus, Jhelum and Kabul rivers are still flowing at low flood levels, according to the latest situation described by authorities.
Officials expect the Chenab and Ravi to rise further during the next 24 hours, while the Indus is likely to remain at low flood levels over the next 48 hours. This means the main concern is close monitoring of changing flows, especially near barrages and river-adjacent low-lying settlements, rather than a nationwide river emergency at this stage.
| River / Point | Current Situation | Short-Term Outlook | Risk Reading |
| Chenab at Marala | High flows reported | Expected to rise | Close monitoring needed |
| Ravi at Balloki | High flows reported | Expected to rise | Low-to-medium risk |
| Indus River | Low flood level | Likely low for 48 hours | Controlled |
| Jhelum and Kabul | Low flood level | No major escalation stated | Controlled |
Punjab Rainfall Keeps Lahore and Nearby Districts Alert
Rain is expected to continue in Lahore and several other Punjab districts through July 27. During the past 24 hours, Noorpur Thal received the highest recorded rainfall at 115 millimeters, followed by Gujranwala at 107 millimeters and Gujrat at 94 millimeters. Lahore has received 450 millimeters over the past five days, a level that can quickly test drainage capacity in low-lying and congested localities.
For residents, the practical risk is less about the headline number alone and more about repeated rainfall over already wet streets, drains and open nullahs. Urban flooding can develop rapidly where drainage lines are blocked, road cuts are open, or construction material slows water flow. Authorities have therefore urged district administrations to stay alert as the system continues.
| Location | Rainfall | Why It Matters |
| Noorpur Thal | 115 mm | Highest rainfall reported in the past 24 hours |
| Gujranwala | 107 mm | Heavy rain raises urban drainage pressure |
| Gujrat | 94 mm | High local rain may affect roads and low areas |
| Lahore | 450 mm in five days | Repeated rain increases urban flooding risk |
Karachi Drizzle and Interior Sindh Heavy Rain Risk
In Sindh, the PMD has forecast light rain and drizzle in Karachi over the next two days. The city is expected to remain mostly cloudy, hot and humid, but the heavier rainfall risk is focused on parts of interior Sindh, including Tharparkar, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas, Badin and Sanghar.
The department has warned that strong monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea may trigger urban flooding in vulnerable places and damage weak structures because of strong winds and lightning. People in exposed areas should avoid standing near old walls, billboards, electric poles and trees during thunderstorms, while motorists should avoid flooded underpasses and fast-moving rainwater.
| Public Safety Reminder: Avoid flooded roads, underpasses, riverbanks and hill torrents during active rain. Follow district administration and rescue alerts. |
Disclaimer: This article is based on PMD and flood-forecast information available at publication time. Weather and river conditions can change quickly; readers should follow official alerts for real-time safety decisions.
