IDC Flags New Risk for the PC Market
A new report from International Data Corporation (IDC) has warned that growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is putting fresh pressure on the global PC market. According to the firm, higher memory costs could push up prices for laptops and desktops and reduce overall shipments in 2026.
In its most pessimistic scenario, IDC projects that worldwide PC shipments could fall by as much as 8.9 percent in 2026. The report links this potential decline mainly to rising memory prices, which are being driven by a global shift in how memory chips are produced and where they are used.
IDC notes that the strain has already been felt in the market, contributing to the exit of at least one consumer-facing RAM brand. The consultancy warns that if current trends continue, more firms could struggle to remain competitive as memory costs climb.
Chipmakers Shift Production Toward AI Data Centres
The core of the issue lies in how major memory manufacturers are reallocating production. IDC says that big chipmakers have started moving capacity away from conventional DRAM and NAND chips used in PCs, smartphones and other consumer electronics.
Instead, they are prioritising memory types designed for AI data centres, such as high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5 modules. These advanced chips are essential for training and running large AI models in cloud environments, where demand has surged from tech giants and enterprise customers.
This shift has reduced the supply of PC-grade RAM available to computer manufacturers. With less supply and strong demand, prices have started to rise. Some PC makers have already begun passing these higher component costs on to buyers, meaning more expensive finished products on store shelves.
Higher RAM Prices Could Hit AI PCs and Smartphones
The timing of the memory crunch is particularly sensitive because the industry was banking on so-called AI PCs to lift sales after a post-pandemic slowdown. AI PCs are new-generation laptops and desktops that include neural processing units (NPUs) designed to run AI models locally for tasks like image editing, language tools and security.
However, these systems typically require more RAM than traditional machines, leaving them more exposed to rising memory costs. IDC’s worst-case outlook suggests that RAM prices could climb by 6 to 8 percent in 2026. If that happens, PC makers will either have to absorb the extra cost, reducing their margins, or increase retail prices, which could discourage buyers.
The impact is not limited to computers. IDC also expects the average selling price of smartphones to rise by a similar 6 to 8 percent under its most pessimistic scenario. In that case, global smartphone shipments could fall by up to 5.2 percent as some consumers delay upgrades or switch to cheaper models.
Big Brands Better Shielded Than Smaller Players
Not all manufacturers will feel the squeeze in the same way. According to IDC, large companies such as Apple and Samsung are better positioned to manage higher memory prices. They benefit from strong cash reserves, long-term supply contracts and deeper relationships with memory suppliers, which can help smooth out price swings.
These advantages may allow bigger brands to keep their device prices relatively stable, at least for the next year or two. In some cases, they might also be able to secure priority access to scarce high-performance memory used in premium laptops and flagship phones.
Smaller PC and smartphone makers, on the other hand, are more exposed. IDC warns that many of these firms are likely to face higher costs and fewer chances to experiment with new products as memory expenses eat into their budgets. Some may have to scale back ambitious designs or cut back on upgraded RAM options in order to keep retail prices competitive.
What It Means for Consumers and the Tech Industry
For consumers, the report suggests that PC and smartphone prices could be firmer than expected in 2026, even as other parts of the tech sector stabilise. Buyers who want AI-capable PCs or phones with more RAM may have to pay a premium or watch for promotions and discounts more carefully.
For the broader tech industry, IDC’s warning highlights the growing trade-off between AI infrastructure and traditional consumer electronics. As cloud providers and large AI players compete for high-end memory, everyday devices like laptops and smartphones risk becoming more expensive to produce, which could slow down replacement cycles and overall market growth.
If memory prices stabilise or additional production capacity comes online, the pressure on PC and phone makers could ease. Until then, manufacturers may need to adjust their strategies, focusing on optimised configurations, leaner product line-ups and careful pricing to navigate what could be a challenging year for the PC market in 2026.
